무디스, Coinbase 신용등급 강등(Ba3 → Ba2)

자료 : 무디스 IR 홈페이지 https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Coinbase-senior-debt-Ba2-and-places-ratings-under--PR_467258

 

무디스, 코인베이스 신용등급 강등(Ba3→Ba2)

- 무디스는 코인베이스 신용등급을 1단계 강등. 또한, 추가적인 등급하향도 고려

- 등급 하향의 주요논리는 크립토 자산의 가격하락에 따른 이익감소이다. 약 87%의 수익이 거래량에서 발생하는 수수료 수익인데, 가격하락에 따른 총 수수료 수익이 크게 감소할 것으로 예상됨으로서 재무건전성도 약화될 것으로 추정

- 포트폴리오 다변화가 필요하며, 향후 규제비용 증가 등으로 비용요인이 더 크다고 추정. 한편, 흥미로운 점은 해당 신용평가모델이 증권업 분석모델로서 크립토업에 대한 별도의 모델이 있지는 않다는 것이다.

- 현재, 보유한 현금성 자산을 고려할 때 크게 우려할 만한 수준이 아니지만, 암호화폐 가격변동이 동사의 현금흐름에 미치는 영향이 큰 것은 사실이다.

 

Today's rating action reflects Coinbase's substantially weaker revenue and cash flow generation due to the steep declines in crypto asset prices that have occurred in recent months and reduced customer trading activity. Moody's expects the company's profitability to remain challenged in the current environment despite its 14 June announcement of a reduction in its global workforce of around 1,100 employees.

 

Moody's said the steep declines in crypto asset prices during the second quarter of 2022 follow a reduction in its first quarter average transaction revenue per user. Coinbase management's full-year 2022 outlook points towards pre-2021 level average transaction revenue per user. Moody's noted that the rapid decline in crypto asset prices accelerated during the second quarter of 2022 and will likely result in lower transaction revenue for the remainder of the year, absent a significant sustained rebound in crypto asset prices and trading volumes.

 

... (중략) ... Moody's said the downgrade also reflects Coinbase's lack of revenue diversification (crypto asset transaction-based revenue represented 87% of first quarter 2022 net revenue) and an operating expense base that may be less flexible than Moody's previously anticipated. Moody's noted that Coinbase's continued efforts to invest in the company may result in increased revenue diversification over the long-term, such as revenue from subscriptions and other services.

 

Moody's said that as at 31 March 2022, Coinbase had $6.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents, a healthy position relative to its $3.4 billion in long-term debt, including the $2 billion rated senior guaranteed notes (due 2028 and 2031).

 

During its review of Coinbase's ratings for further downgrade, Moody's will consider Coinbase's financial profile should the deterioration in crypto asset prices and trading volumes remain at current levels or worsen, its cash and non-cash expense trajectory over the next twelve to eighteen months, the firm's ability to reduce expenses while maintaining effective operational control, the potential for crypto asset regulatory developments following the recent adverse market events, and the firm's franchise strength and ability to retain talent.